Lacking the Inspiration to Blog in Changed Market

I’m absolutely embarrassed that I have not blogged since February 25 and this is without a doubt the longest dry spell since this blog’s inception.  No coincidence that it is also the most challenging market that I have seen in my almost 17 years and I think complicated market dynamics are the root cause of my blogger’s apathy.  I have chosen not to add to the doom and gloom media reports of a crashing real estate market although with prices down in some areas as much as 40% in such a short period of time, I’m also not going to pretend that all is rosy.

The focus of TrueGotham has been and will always be on integrity and maintaining an honest voice that is broadcast from the trenches of the Manhattan real estate market.  That said, here is what is happening in my business right now.

  • Marathon Negotiations:  Buyers and sellers are playing a game of cat and mouse to see how far each side can push the other in relation to bending on terms.  A meeting of the minds can take weeks and even a month and a contract signing may take even longer with attorneys often suggesting term changes that have already been agreed upon by the parties involved.  Creative terms are getting deals done…stubbornness is not.
  • Value is Key:  Buyers are willing to step up and purchase in today’s market only if they truly perceive value.  Many are putting down large chunks of cash in order to take advantage of historically low mortgage rates for the remainder of the purchase price within FHA guidelines.
  • Sellers are Listening:  We have reached a point in the real estate market where the seeming majority of sellers are willing to price aggressively out of the gate or make big price adjustments within weeks of bringing to market.
  • No Deal is a Deal Until Closing:   Co-op boards seem to be more discriminating of employment and financial status for obvious reasons and banks are taking FOREVER to generate commitment letters and loans because both the refi and new purchase markets are flooded due to low rates.
  • Testing the Market is a Waste of Time:  Pricing remains the single most important factor in determining whether or not a home sells.  For those with inflated asking prices hoping for the "right buyer" to come along, "stop wasting your time."  Also consider the occasional case where an agent just wants your home to generate buyers for other properties.  Most of us are in the business of selling homes, not listing them.

So that’s what I’m experiencing right now.  So basically ,the time, effort, and energy required to sell Manhattan real estate (for me) is inversely proportional to the desire to blog.  But I promise to try harder in the coming weeks.

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8 Responses to Lacking the Inspiration to Blog in Changed Market

  1. avatar Ed Bissen says:

    Hi Doug,
    It’s hard to believe that I first posted on your blog after the market first crashed in July 2007. The rapid decline in this market is even greater than I experienced after the 1987 (yes I’ve been around that long) market correction. At that time real estate values began a decade long downturn that did not see a true recovery until 2001. The meteoric rise in values seen through 2005 was unsustainable and I remember telling my clients back in 2006, that although I didn’t see prices rising at that pace, it would level off to a more realistic sustainable level (5-10%). My only fear at the time was a repeat of the 9-11 tragedy. Little did I know that the ground work for the financial debacle was being laid and based on the very industry I was so proud to be a part of.
    So here we are a little more than a year and half since the warning sirens were sounded. The Manhattan real estate market joined the rest of the country in seeing prices fall, and job losses measured in 100′s of thousands. But what I do know is that this will end, things will get better, life will go on, and hopefully I will still be able to call this industry home.
    All the best, Ed

  2. avatar Ivan Pintor says:

    The one thing I will always say is that nothing stays the same for ever. So the buyers out there have to be prepared to buy as this will change. Buyers need to adjust to the banking system to getting a loan for a property. Some buyers who are a real investor has to take the chance that the value may fall just a bit below what they purchased, at the same time under stand the value will rise and surpass there value over time.
    I was walking around midtown last night around 8pm. The thing I noticed is I still see people eating out in restaurants. Rue 57 was full,BLT and Star lounge in the Ritz Carlton full, Mickey Mantle was half full. So people still have money to spend it is not like a barren waste land in the city.

  3. avatar anon says:

    Actually, Ivan, the Buyer doesn’t “have to” do jackshit! In this market, the Buyer calls the shots. The Buyer can lowball your sorry broker ass, or simply wait as prices continue to fall.
    Perhaps you should say instead that the Seller/Broker “has to” adjust to reality and get his/her head out of the sand. If you continue to blame slow sales on “the Buyer”, Ivan, you will be one inactive, bored, broke broker.

  4. avatar Ivan Pintor says:

    Well Anon you take it so personal. I see you are not a real estate investor by any means. True real estate investors know about getting a good price or getting a good term for the purchase of a property. Right now this is a good price time with a good term time.
    Seeing as you speak from the projects ” Actually, Ivan, the Buyer doesn’t “have to” do jackshit! In this market, the Buyer calls the shots. ” or maybe you were watching too much PJ’s Cartoon. But since I bet most of these buyers are not buying all cash they need to learn how banks give loans in today’s market. DUH DUH.
    Like I said nothing stays the same forever, at one point it will rise in value. The same happen when the prices were rising too remember? DUH DUH my name is ANON DUH. It did not stay the same as prices stop rising and it headed south.
    I never blame buyers for anything, and you know what I say good for sellers that are trying to hold on to there price. That gives the buyer somewhere else to buy. I would never advise my clients to hold out on a price that gets no attention what so ever.
    Oh and by the way I am not bored I can always do other things when one thing get slow I can do something else. My life my choice my investments my money. bye bye now anon duh duh. I picture anon looks like Eric Cartmen from when he wanted to go into the special Olympics wearing that big shoe LOL.

  5. Ivan,
    You have given my readers all the evidence that they need to see that I don’t censor comments. Your childish rant is embarassing and I would like to remind you that DE-NILE is not just a river that runs through Egypt. If you are a broker, I am truly concerned that your are misrepresenting the profession that so many of us take very seriously. Silly insults show your ignorance and only create greater evidence that anyone can get a real estate license. Now feel free to “DUH” away and call me names but I find your rant embarassing and truly wished that I could have deleted it.

  6. avatar Ivan Pintor says:

    No I dont want to DUH you Douglas. You should be able to delete anything you want on your blog by contacting your web admin.
    Yes Douglas anyone can get a real estate license. It is not the hardest thing to get from DOS. You would be surprised at what I had to deal with other brokers.
    There was a broker at 15 broad that had the most exclusives. This broker would try to bully people by threatening them to get out of the building. If not he would want the other brokers to stay in the copper room. It had worked on a few brokers and some felt scared of him. Then one day an associate of mine asked me to do an open house there. I said sure I dont mind helping you out. He warned me about this guy and he has other brokers to back him up.
    So now comes my day to do the open house. I of course stay in the lobby to greet people and ask if I can help them with anything. Here comes the bully broker and he starts to tell me off. He tells me I cant stay in the lobby but his team can. I tell him I aint going anywhere. He gets angry and tells me to get the fuck out in my ear. I tell him nope.
    So what does he do he gets 2 other guys to come with him up to my face. He yelled out loud in front of residents of the building ” Get the fuck out of here now! ” I told him the only way I am out of here is someone picks me up and throws me out. He asked me if I wanted that done to me. I said no if you touch me that is by law an assult and I just have to go out side ask a police officer for help. I press charges and you go to jail. He flipped out cursed me out again and threw the doors open and just left. So I turned to the other two guys and asked them what now? They walked away and said ” what you are doing is wrong ”
    I then continued my day working the open house. The other thing is this broker would pay the concierge money to get the keys to our exclusive to try and sell it. They pay the doorman to info and to get favors from them too. So I think there are worst agents out there then my ignorance. That is just one of the many stories I have being in this business.
    I wished you would of had something to say about anon post but this is your blog, your rules, and of course your choice.

  7. I AM my administrator Ivan. You’re missing the point. I choose not to censor as I’m not G*d and have no right to omit your comments despite the fact that I think they are juvenile.
    I agree with anon BTW. No single dynamic (buyer/seller/mortgages) is the reason for today’s complex market. He’s right…buyer’s can choose to do nothing as can sellers and the banks. Many are doing just that and fortunately more and more are acting. It is what it is but resorting to silly insults is not what this blog is about. Let’s keep content adult and professional.

  8. avatar Ivan Pintor says:

    Hey thanks Douglas for not removing my writing. I never ment that it is only the buyer, I was just making one simple point about buyers. That is all not that this whole market is their fault. If I want to buy in today’s market and I dont have all cash then I am going to the bank. So now I most likely will not get a no doc loan. So I have to figure another way to get creative or show my docs. The owners are seeing that loans are not going through for buyers which gives buyers the edge to say you need to lower your price. Some owners can say the hell with it someone will come and buy at my price. But those buyers are not a dime a dozen anymore. Those are the type of sellers I would not like to deal with as it would waste my time.
    As for anon post saying that I will be a bored broker and a broke broker just set things in motion for me to be as immature as I came off in that post. Oh and the cursing in my direction didn’t help it either. That is all I am saying.
    Ivan

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